The Demographic Transition Model

What is the demographic transition model?

What is the demographic transition model?

• The demographic transition model (DTM) shows the five generalised stages of population change that countries pass through as they develop

• It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population as the country 

Stages of the demographic transition model

Stage 1

• The total population is low 

• High birth rates due to lack of contraception/family planning 

• High death rates due to:

  • poor healthcare

  • poor diet

  • famine

• High infant mortality leads people to have more children so that some children survive to adulthood

Stage 2

• The total population starts to rise rapidly

• Birth rates remain high as people continue to have large families because:

  • children are needed as workers

  • no pensions or elderly care means people have children to look after them in their old age

• Death rates decrease as a result of:

  • improved diets

  • better healthcare

  • lower infant mortality

  • increased access to clean water

Stage 3

• The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth begins to slow

• The birth rate begins to fall rapidly due to:

  • increased birth control

  • family planning

  • increased cost of raising children

  • low infant mortality rate 

  • more access to education for women

• The death rate is still decreasing, but at a slower rate, as there have been improvements in:

  • medicine

  • hygiene

  • diet

  • water quality

Stage 4

• The total population is high and is increasing slowly 

• The low and fluctuating birth rate can be attributed to

  • accessible birth control and the choice of having fewer children

  • women delaying the age they start to have children

• The death rate is low and fluctuates 

Stage 5

• The total population starts to slowly decline as the death rate exceeds the birth rate 

• The birth rate is low and slowly decreasing

• The death rate is low and fluctuates

Strengths of the demographic transition model

Strengths of the demographic transition model

• The DTM simplifies population change, making the trends easy to identify and analyse

• It can be easily applied to different settings 

• The DTM shows what happened to the population in Western Europe before, during and after industrialisation

• It can help governments plan for predicted future changes

Limitations of the demographic transition model

Limitations of the demographic transition model

• The DTM does not take into account migration, natural disasters, pandemics, wars or government policies that impact birth rates, e.g. China’s one-child policy

• It is based on countries in Western Europe that industrialised between 1800 and 1950

  • So it is harder to apply to MICs and LICs today that are industrialising in shorter time-frames due to globalisation

• The model assumes that all countries will develop in the same way